Pillar's Tropical Cyclone Forecast

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CHAMPI

Cat2 Cat2 ·85 kt ·12.4°N, 148.6°E

1 active system(s) · ensemble guidance from 9 models, refreshed every 10 minutes.

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Data updated10-17 11:51

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We track tropical cyclones at the intersection between artificial intelligence and physics — every ensemble member, every 10 minutes, side by side with the official forecast.

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Cat2 WP292026 LIVE

CHAMPI

Cat2

Position: 12.4°N, 148.6°E
Obs time: 17 / 00:00 UTC
Models: WN3-C · WN2-C r2 · WN2-C r1 · WN2-C 1000 · GENC · AIFS · ECMWF · AIGFS · GFS

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Outlook

Genesis potential

Where might the next storm form? Explore ensemble genesis signals from 8 models.

WN3-CWN2-C r2WN2-C r1WN2-C 1000GENCAIFS-ENSECMWF-ENSGEFS

Explore outlook →

Sources

Forecast models

Output in this run

WN3-C

Google DeepMind

WeatherNext · Ensemble

WN2-C r2

Google DeepMind

WeatherNext · Ensemble

WN2-C r1

Google DeepMind

WeatherNext · Ensemble

WN2-C 1000

Google DeepMind

WeatherNext · 1000 members

GENC

Google DeepMind

WeatherNext · Ensemble

AIFS

ECMWF

AIFS-ENS + AIFS-single

ECMWF

IFS ENS + HRES

AIGFS

NOAA

AIGEFS + AIGFS

GFS

NOAA

GEFS + GFS

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone

CHAMPI

Cat2 WP292026 LIVE Cat2

Obs time

17 / 00:00 UTC

Position

12.4°N, 148.6°E

Max wind

85kt

Min pressure

981hPa

Intensity scale (Saffir–Simpson) 85 kt

TDTSCat1Cat2Cat3Cat4Cat5

📊 Multi-Model Comparison

Ensemble mean tracks and deterministic runs from every model on one map · Hollow dots = 24-hr steps · Parentheses in the legend give each model's initialization time (day/hour Z)

🎬 Track Evolution Animation Space play/pause ←→ seek

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🗺 Ensemble Track Forecast

WN3-C · Colored lines = ensemble members (color = intensity) · Navy line = ensemble mean · Cyclone symbol = initial position

WN2-C r2 · Colored lines = ensemble members (color = intensity) · Navy line = ensemble mean · Cyclone symbol = initial position

WN2-C r1 · Colored lines = ensemble members (color = intensity) · Navy line = ensemble mean · Cyclone symbol = initial position

GENC · Colored lines = ensemble members (color = intensity) · Navy line = ensemble mean · Cyclone symbol = initial position

AIFS · Colored lines = ensemble members (color = intensity) · Navy line = ensemble mean · Cyclone symbol = initial position

ECMWF · Colored lines = ensemble members (color = intensity) · Navy line = ensemble mean · Cyclone symbol = initial position

AIGFS · Colored lines = ensemble members (color = intensity) · Navy line = ensemble mean · Cyclone symbol = initial position

GFS · Colored lines = ensemble members (color = intensity) · Navy line = ensemble mean · Cyclone symbol = initial position

🛰 JTWC Official Forecast

Source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) — U.S. Navy & Air Force

🧭 Interactive Track Map

Init Members Mean Deterministic

Drag / scroll to zoom · Hover a line for member, time (UTC) and wind · Member colors = intensity

🎯 Strike Probability

WP292026 Strike Probability · WN2-C 1000

Share of ensemble members whose track passes within 1° (~111 km) of each 0.1° grid point at any time in the forecast · Intensity is not considered

⏱ WN2-C 1000 Strike Probability by Period & 34-kt Wind

WP292026 WN2-C 1000 Strike Probability · 0–72 h

WP292026 WN2-C 1000 Strike Probability · 72–120 h

WP292026 WN2-C 1000 Strike Probability · 120 h+

WP292026 WN2-C 1000 Strike Probability · 34 kt

Same 1° rule split into forecast periods · 34 kt = inside the forecast 34-kt wind radii at any time · 1000 members

📍 Taiwan Landfall & City Strike Probability

Model	WN3-C10/16 18Z · ≤318 h	WN2-C r210/16 18Z · ≤312 h	WN2-C r110/16 18Z · ≤270 h	WN2-C 100010/16 18Z · ≤348 h	GENC10/16 18Z · ≤360 h	AIFS-ENS10/16 18Z · ≤342 h	AIFS-single10/16 18Z · ≤204 h	ECMWF-ENS10/16 18Z · ≤144 h	ECMWF HRES10/16 18Z · ≤144 h	AIGEFS10/16 18Z · ≤240 h	AIGFS10/16 18Z · ≤240 h	GEFS10/16 18Z · ≤192 h	GFS10/16 18Z · ≤240 h
Taiwan landfallstorm centre moves onto Taiwan's main island (outlying islands excluded)
tw_landfall	58%10/23 16Z	26%10/24 02Z	34%10/24 00Z	27%10/24 06Z	30%10/24 19Z	17%10/23 18Z	✓10/24 08Z	<1%	—	74%10/23 10Z	✓10/24 11Z	26%10/24 12Z	✓10/24 08Z
City striketrack passes within 1° (~111 km) of the city
taipei	30%10/23 21Z	16%10/23 19Z	20%10/24 01Z	21%10/24 07Z	26%10/24 17Z	15%10/24 01Z	✓10/24 04Z	<1%	—	16%10/24 02Z	—	6%10/24 10Z	—
taichung	47%10/23 18Z	26%10/24 06Z	24%10/24 08Z	23%10/24 09Z	28%10/24 20Z	19%10/24 11Z	—	<1%	—	42%10/23 15Z	✓10/24 12Z	10%10/24 10Z	✓10/24 08Z
kaohsiung	27%10/23 13Z	14%10/24 14Z	16%10/24 07Z	12%10/24 09Z	8%10/25 00Z	14%10/25 00Z	—	<1%	—	52%10/23 08Z	✓10/24 13Z	29%10/24 10Z	—
hualien	39%10/23 12Z	24%10/23 22Z	28%10/23 22Z	23%10/24 02Z	28%10/24 14Z	15%10/23 16Z	✓10/23 19Z	<1%	—	39%10/23 11Z	✓10/24 08Z	10%10/24 08Z	✓10/24 06Z
hengchun	19%10/23 08Z	2%10/23 11Z	10%10/24 02Z	6%10/24 09Z	4%10/25 15Z	12%10/24 15Z	—	<1%	—	42%10/23 05Z	—	29%10/24 10Z	—
naha	3%10/23 23Z	18%10/23 11Z	26%10/23 08Z	23%10/23 13Z	32%10/23 19Z	21%10/23 15Z	—	<1%	—	3%10/23 08Z	—	6%10/23 21Z	—
hongkong	3%10/25 19Z	<1%	16%10/25 11Z	5%10/25 17Z	2%10/25 04Z	2%10/26 08Z	—	<1%	—	36%10/25 10Z	✓10/25 16Z	10%10/24 14Z	✓10/25 18Z
xiamen	27%10/24 13Z	18%10/25 01Z	18%10/25 00Z	15%10/24 23Z	14%10/25 09Z	4%10/24 14Z	—	<1%	—	58%10/24 04Z	—	10%10/24 06Z	✓10/24 20Z
shanghai	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%10/25 16Z	<1%	—	<1%	—	<1%	—	<1%	—
tokyo	5%10/25 22Z	14%10/25 09Z	22%10/25 10Z	11%10/25 12Z	4%10/26 03Z	8%10/25 08Z	—	<1%	—	<1%	—	<1%	—
guam	100%10/17 14Z	100%10/17 14Z	100%10/17 14Z	100%10/17 14Z	100%10/17 14Z	100%10/17 14Z	✓10/17 14Z	98%10/17 15Z	✓10/17 15Z	100%10/17 15Z	✓10/17 16Z	100%10/17 16Z	✓10/17 15Z

Share of members whose track passes within 1° (~111 km) of the city · Time below = median first arrival among those members (UTC) · Taiwan cities always shown; others only when any model reaches 1%

🧭 Track Trend

Ensemble mean tracks from every cycle since the storm first appeared, older = lighter · Shows which way successive forecasts have shifted · AIFS-single / ECMWF HRES / AIGFS / GFS tabs = deterministic run (amber)

📈 Intensity Forecast

WP292026 Intensity Forecast · WN2-C 1000

Thin lines = members · Navy line = median · Band = 10–90% · RI = intensifying ≥ 30 kt within 24 h · Amber line = deterministic run (AIFS / ECMWF / AIGFS / GFS)

🏁 Track Error by Model

allst

Every model has every forecast so far, so the homogeneous and full samples are identical and shown once.

Only this storm has verified forecasts so far, so it matches the all-storms total.

Mean track error (km)

WN3-CWN2-C r2WN2-C r1GENCAIFS-ENSAIFS-singleECMWF-ENSECMWF HRESAIGEFSAIGFSGEFSGFS

Model	24 hkm	48 hkm	72 hkm	96 hkm	120 hkm
Ensemble mean
WN3-C	27n=6 · +4%	24n=2	—	—	—
WN2-C r2	32n=6 · +23%	28n=2	—	—	—
WN2-C r1	26n=6 · ★	22n=2	—	—	—
GENC	29n=6 · +12%	45n=2	—	—	—
AIFS-ENS	44n=6 · +69%	54n=2	—	—	—
ECMWF-ENS	88n=6 · +238%	204n=2	—	—	—
AIGEFS	88n=5 · +238%	41n=1	—	—	—
GEFS	155n=5 · +496%	202n=1	—	—	—
Deterministicsingle run — usually less accurate than an ensemble mean
AIFS-single	35n=6 · +35%	52n=2	—	—	—
ECMWF HRES	67n=6 · +158%	186n=2	—	—	—
AIGFS	78n=6 · +200%	54n=2	—	—	—
GFS	119n=6 · +358%	134n=2	—	—	—

Mean distance (km) between each forecast position and the JTWC warning position at the same time · Homogeneous = only forecasts every model has for the same storm, init and hour (fair comparison) · Colors compare models per hour: green = best, red = worst; ★ = best, +x% = behind the best · Faded = fewer than 3 forecasts, not ranked

Outlook

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential — Ensemble Overview

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential (WN3-C)

Circles = ensemble members at each 6-hr step, colored by minimum sea level pressure. Gray lines = individual ensemble tracks (up to 360 h; GEFS 120 h). Data sourced from Google DeepMind WN3-C.

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential (WN2-C r2)

Circles = ensemble members at each 6-hr step, colored by minimum sea level pressure. Gray lines = individual ensemble tracks (up to 360 h; GEFS 120 h). Data sourced from Google DeepMind WN2-C r2.

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential (WN2-C r1)

Circles = ensemble members at each 6-hr step, colored by minimum sea level pressure. Gray lines = individual ensemble tracks (up to 360 h; GEFS 120 h). Data sourced from Google DeepMind WN2-C r1.

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential (WN2-C 1000)

Each line is one of 1000 ensemble members. Named storms are grouped by track ID; unnamed tracks are clustered by genesis time and position. Percentages = share of members that produce the system; gray = sparse tracks. Data sourced from Google DeepMind WN2-C 1000.

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential (GENC)

Circles = ensemble members at each 6-hr step, colored by minimum sea level pressure. Gray lines = individual ensemble tracks (up to 360 h; GEFS 120 h). Data sourced from Google DeepMind GENC.

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential (AIFS-ENS)

Circles = ensemble members at each 6-hr step, colored by minimum sea level pressure. Gray lines = individual ensemble tracks (up to 360 h; GEFS 120 h). Data sourced from ECMWF Open Data.

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential (ECMWF-ENS)

Circles = ensemble members at each 6-hr step, colored by minimum sea level pressure. Gray lines = individual ensemble tracks (up to 360 h; GEFS 120 h). Data sourced from ECMWF Open Data.

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential (GEFS)

Circles = ensemble members at each 6-hr step, colored by minimum sea level pressure. Gray lines = individual ensemble tracks (up to 360 h; GEFS 120 h). Data sourced from NOAA NCEP.

About

How to read this site

This site gathers AI and physics-based ensemble forecasts for Western Pacific tropical cyclones and redraws them on a common style every 10 minutes, next to the official JTWC forecast.

🎨Intensity categories

TD TD ≤ 34 kt

TS TS 35–63 kt

Cat1 Cat1 64–82 kt

Cat2 Cat2 83–95 kt

Cat3 Cat3 96–112 kt

Cat4 Cat4 113–136 kt

Cat5 Cat5 ≥ 137 kt

🧭Reading the maps

Multi-Model Comparison

Track Evolution Animation

Ensemble Track Forecast

Interactive Track Map

Strike Probability

Strike Probability by Period

Taiwan Landfall & City Strike Probability

Track Trend

Intensity Forecast

Track Error by Model

Genesis

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⚠️Notice

Not for operational use. For official warnings, follow your national meteorological agency.

Probabilities on this site are the share of ensemble members that forecast an outcome — a measure of how much the models agree, not an official forecast probability. A deterministic run (AIFS-single, ECMWF HRES, AIGFS, GFS) is a single possible scenario.